EV to ZEV and FCEV

Part 1 of 4: The Good, Bad, and Ugly of the EV Transition

In this four part series, we will examine the history, macro context, infrastructure, and future predictions in everything Electric Vehicle (EV) to Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) and important factors of consideration in between. Electric vehicles are inclusive within the category of ZEVs, but the terms are not synonymous. ZEVs also include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, an increasingly important focus of the EV to ZEV transition on the horizon that must be considered through rapid iteration innovation and infrastructure upgrades happening throughout the clean transportation-related industries.

In part one of this four part series, we will explore the history of the transition to EVs and begin to understand the macro lens, including implications of a 100% EV adoption. Currently fourteen states have adopted LEV and ZEV regulation standards to independent and varying degrees under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act.

It took more than 100 years from the time the first EV was invented to the time EV vehicles made a mainstream appearance. Believe it or not, the first successful electric car made its debut around 1890, invented by a chemist, William Morrison in Des Moines, IA. The six-passenger vehicle was capable of top speeds of 14 miles per hour, and helped spark interest in electric vehicles. However, it was not until 1996 that GM released the EV1, the first modern electric car made by a major manufacturer.

Luckily, with increasing warnings from Mother Nature of impending doom should humanity not heed the warnings on climate impact, in the last 26 years, infrastructure, technology, policy, and manufacturers have worked in parallel to transition from fossil fuels.

However, with the move to large-scale EV goals, comes increased pressure, stressing other environmental resources beyond oil reserves and harming previously undisturbed habitats. Major implications for factors beyond air quality and oil reserves exist, including:

Mining and Scarcity of Resources. EV car batteries are complex components containing many rare earth elements (REE), like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. Many of these sources are extremely finite. For example, according to the United States Geological Survey, the global demand for cobalt is forecasted to double by 2030, with approximately 7.6 million tons of reserves of the 25 million known tons of cobalt resources available from the Earth’s surface, and an additional 120 million tons available through deep sea mining of the sea floor. Clearly alternatives, such as iron, which has already replaced cobalt in around 50% of EV batteries in China, nickel, which has approximately 50 times the known reserves of cobalt, and manganese, which is mined in countries such as South Africa, Australia, and China - the 5th most abundant REE on the planet. Due to these scarcity concerns, APAC countries in particular are focusing innovation on hydrogen vehicles (aka FCEVs), with EMEA and North American innovation rapidly following this trend, with more than 15,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles on the U.S. roads right now - all in the California. Current focus is on how to more efficiently recycle EV batteries as we look towards future scarcities of currently utilized resources and find new innovation of fuel alternatives like hydrogen and methane - that when stabilized - provide abundance of resource without the same extent of mining as currently popular EV batteries.

Policy and Regulation. With cobalt reserves expected to dwindle and struggle to keep up with demand by 2030, alternative battery solutions are dire. There is not enough cobalt on the planet to power a 100% U.S. EV market, let alone the entire planet. Policies and Regulation, including the Regional Electric Vehicle Plan for the West, and the Midwest Coalition must be skillfully adaptable to future innovations less and less reliant on REE materials like the EV batteries of modern times. Currently Clean Tech industries are focused on innovation for using more abundant resources to build the future of transportation, including hydrogen, would would require a completely different infrastructure model than that of EVs. Hence the rise of the ZEVs, which is a more inclusive term, adaptable to future innovation that has less and less of an impact through mining, deforestation, and other obstructions to a cleaner Earth.

Demand. In total, accordingly to Rocky Mountain Institute, EVs are to surpass two-thirds of global car sales by 2030, supplanting nearly have of oil demand. Meanwhile, under the Accelerating to Zero Coalition, over 220 signatories to the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) declaration — which includes countries representing 12% of the global car and van market committed to 100% ZEV sales by 2040 globally and 2035 in leading markets — are helping to drive widespread progress through a shared pathway. Plus, over 100 corporate members of EV100 are helping to accelerate the transition and driving investment decisions at scale. Needless to say, ZEVs, be it in battery or fuel-cell, are here to stay.

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